Weekly Crop Commentary - 02/21/2025

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

It was a quiet close to the week, with the bulls unable to hold momentum. CZ25 ran out of steam at $4.80 after an impressive two-month rally. We saw a fair amount of old crop and new crop corn sales from farmers this week, and rightfully so. We’ve also seen solid interest in our flex-floor contract, which lets you set a price floor while keeping upside potential open if the market trends higher. 

In South America, Brazil’s safrinha corn planting is now over 20% complete, slightly behind the average pace. Dry soil conditions in southern Brazil are becoming a concern, and with lower-than-normal precipitation expected through March, this could continue to create opportunity for corn prices. Meanwhile, U.S. exports remain strong, staying ahead of the USDA’s pace, with Mexico and Japan leading the way as top destinations.

In the soybean market, the U.S. remains uncompetitive against Brazil, whose record crop continues to supply Chinese demand. With South America still on track for a record harvest, there’s little in the way of a bullish story for beans right now. Could lower acres in the planting intentions report or weather concerns this growing season shift the outlook? It might be time to take some risk off the table with $10 new crop beans or consider a contracting option that establishes a floor. Don’t forget—you can now enter your own target offers in the Heritage Portal. Reach out to your local merchandiser for free access!

Weather remains a key factor in the wheat market, with concerns over winterkill due to colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest, Eastern Europe, and the Black Sea region. The U.S. Midwest has been running 10-16 degrees below normal this week, adding to the uncertainty. If you’re looking for a contract opportunity for wheat, consider our average price program! Enrollment for our annual average price program for new crop wheat, corn, and soybeans kicks off next week—stay tuned for details.

Lastly, we kicked off our regional grain marketing meetings this week in Kenton! Don’t forget to RSVP for your region, and if you can’t make it in person, join us for our webinar on March 4th. 

Hope you all have a wonderful weekend and stay warm!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)

Markets were closed on Monday for President’s Day, without much movement after due to there being no substantial headlines to feed the bullish market. The theme this week seemed to be a lack of fundamental news, and the markets reflected that.

US wheat export demand is improving as global alternatives are starting to decrease.

Get ready for the heat wave early next week… It is supposed to hit 45º.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

We’re wrapping up another short week of trading after Presidents’ Day on Monday. With the ebb and flow, we’re ending the week not far from last week’s closing prices. It seems we may have found a range the market is comfortable with. On Tuesday, we saw March corn futures make fresh highs not seen since May. The bump can be attributed to a fantastic export inspections number on the weekly report. Trade had expected 55 million bushels to be reported, but the figure came in at 63.4 mb, with most going to Mexico. Soybean inspections, on the other hand, did not meet even the low end of expectations, which is not too surprising, as we do see South America getting more of the business this time of year. Soybeans rallied enough on Thursday due to ever-changing tariff headlines, that even with today’s losses, we’re basically unchanged on the week.
 
Speaking of South America, last week Brazil’s AgRural consultant agency pegged the planting of their second corn crop in the Center-South region of the country at 36% compared to 59% a year earlier. Delays are also seen in the Mato Grosso and Goias areas as farmers scramble to plant in the ideal climate window.
 
The grain marketing meeting for the Urbana and Marysville regions will be held at Der Dutchman in Plain City on March 12th. I hope to see you there, so be sure to RSVP! Have a great weekend.